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2001

HIGH SCHOOL WRESTLING

FORECAST

(30th Annual Edition)

Written By:
Brian Brakeman

Copyright 2001, Reproduction of this material for profit without written consent is prohibited.

DIVISION I

103 #

 Projected Champion:  Nino Paglia (Strongsville)

 Top Contenders 

Very often in state competition the weight classes with the fewest returning qualifiers are 103 pounds and heavyweight.  The latter because of the general dominance of experienced, mature seniors and the former because it is the first stop for freshman and sophomores who quickly outgrow it.  In many years at 103#, I struggle identifying appropriate contenders and a potential champion.  However, in 2001, that general rule has been turned upside down.  There are nine wrestlers with state experience at 103#--.the most in any weight class.  So, that the task is not identifying contenders, but in sifting through such an abundance.  In addition, as a further complication, there are at least four other contenders with no previous state experience who have moved into the forefront at this weight class.

Despite this abundance of talent the top choice is relatively straightforward.  Paglia,at 103#, has been totally dominating.  At Brecksville he crushed Wornoff 13-5 in the final after earlier defeating LaScala, 12-4.  At Mayfield he destroyed a good field, and he comes off a freshman year which saw him win a district title and finish 5^th in the state.  Even that might have been a disappointment as he lost to eventual finalist Cundall 5-3 in overtime and barely to Vickers in the consolations.  The real issue is whether, he will be able to wrestle at peak efficiency when having to make weight three weeks in a row.  It’s a tough cut for Paglia and he will have to control it so that he is not undone by the weight.

The Perry District has four outstanding 103’s. five if you count Riggs backup Johnstone.  all of, whom could place.  Riggs is very impressive.  He hammered Candy at the Ohio Duals and beat Division III choice Wade at the Ironman.  He shares the weight issue with Paglia.  Riggs is tall and it is a rugged path to 103 pounds.  Johnstone (Massillon Perry) has to be the best back-up in the state.  I watched him pin Feldman and he was 3^rd at the Top Gun losing only to the champ from Erie Cathedral Prep. Wornoff was 2^nd at Hudson, Brecksville and the Dies as he has forged a strong consistent season.  He has wins over Riggs, LaFollette, and Federico among others.  LaFollette is clearly fourth best, but with Paglia and Wornoff exiting the same sectional the pairings could be unbalanced.  That would give Spellacy, LaScala, or, maybe, Wise (Wadsworth) an opportunity.  Keep an eye on Spellacy who was a district semi-finalist last year, but has not yet matched that effort this year.  He can spring the big upset.

In many circles Gilsdorf is rated the favorite at this weight class.  After all , he was 4^th last year with four consolation wins and he has been perfect this season  with wins at Tiffin and Waite.  He’s an attractive choice, but I still think Paglia is better.  Mentor has six legitimate state possibilities, but the most unpredictable may be Federico.  He blasted Watson to win at the Midwest Classic, but lost heart-thumpers to Wornoff and LaFollette at Brecksville - - his only defeats.  He has a big upside.  Metcalfe, son of the great 1972 state champ, Jerry, is a little dynamo.  He and state qualifier Zychowicz both certified at 103#, but I believe Metcalfe will wrestle at this weight.  He beat Wornoff to win at Hudson and will challenge anyone I’ve listed.  State qualifier Weaver is probably fourth best at Mentor in what will be a real struggle for qualification.  Both McClain and Felton have had excellent seasons, but unless they can trip up one of the Toledo 103’s, they’ll be left at home.

State qualifier Ondecko has had an undefeated season winning at Upper Arlington, Ready, Sylvania Southview and Toledo Central Catholic.  He won one state bout last year, and held Paglia to a 1-0 margin in the consolation round.  The rest of the contenders here are a little suspect.  While they’ve had success in their own area they have received rough treatment in state-wide events.  I’ve listed Feldman, Iovine, Belcher and Mossar, but they’re likely to struggle at the Schottenstein.  OVAC champ Bates is also here and he has the firepower to qualify.

There is much the same situation at Fairfield.  State qualifiers Candy, J. Smith, Ocasio, and Watson all have substantial experience, but whether that will translate into wins at Columbus is open to question.  Candy, nominally the best in the Cincinnati  area (he was 2^nd at the SWOCA) lost big to Riggs,  and Watson, probably the best in Dayton had the same result with Federico.  I think this district will be extremely spirited, but the qualifiers  will have to move it up a level to compete the following week.

112 #

Projected Champion:  Mark Moos (St. Edward)

Top Contenders

An important use of statistics is testing hypotheses in a rigorous, mathematical manner.  Clearly there are two kinds of errors that can be made--  accepting the null hypothesis when in fact it is false (alpha error) and rejecting the null hypothesis when it is true (beta error).  In may cases statisticians test at the 95% (two standard deviation) confidence level to minimize the alpha error.  Each year I identify wrestlers that I believe are two standard deviation choices (95% certain) to win their weight class.  In most years there are at least three or four competitors in Division I that fall into that classification. For example, last year Ott, Jayne, Percival, Lammers, and Bertin would have been in that category, and they definitely help my accuracy percentages.  This year there is only one wrestler that fits into that 95% classification and that is the brilliant ,junior, Mark Moos.

Moos is probably the best junior lightweight in the country after winning at the Ironman, Beast of the East, Powerade, and Mayfield.  He has dominated every opponent and should capture his first state title with relative ease.    In fact, Moos could conceivably have been on track for four state titles were it not for Kyle Ott.  As a freshman, Ott defeated Moos 4-1 in the semi-finals and then dominated Pflug in the finals, and then last year Ott came off three technical falls to beat Moos in the finals 5-2. If you want to see the consumnate wrestler watch Moos as he coolly, methodically dismantles foe after foe.

This may be the most unbalanced weight class I have ever seen.  In a perfectly just world at least eight of the sixteen qualifiers should come out of the Perry District.  In fact, six of my Top Ten choices will wrestle at Perry, meaning that two will not make it out.  The best, I believe, is the outstanding freshman, Steve Luke who is an absolutely exceptional prospect.  After a 5^th at the Ironman (nerves?) he won decisively at Brecksville over a field that included Randazzo, Costello, Passafiume, Murray and Mantini.  The only issue might be his inexperience.  Phillips was a state semi-finalist  last year, and has lost only once this year, by one point,  to a Pennsylvania state runner-up.  He is difficult to score against.  Costello qualified for Columbus two years ago as a back-up 112-pounder, but didn’t make it last year—losing to Moes and Pollock and ending up 4^th.  At  Brecksville he lost in the first round to Luke and then came back with seven straight wins including a fall over Randazzo for 3^rd.  That still leaves state qualifier Passafiume and State Division II 3^rd place medalist, Ricky Randazzo-- both of whom would surely be finalists at the other three districts.  In addition, Meissner, a district semi-finalist in 2000,  has dropped from 125# to 112# while Murray and Camburn (another district semi-finalist last year) are in for a tough time.  Not only that, but Schmock (Berea) was a strong 4^th  at the Top Gun losing only to Luke and Zupancic while Kee beat Murray in placing at Brecksville.  The match-ups at the district will be brutal starting in the very first round.

There’s not much beyond Moos at Mentor.  Zychowicz was a state qualifier at 103# last year and should get out at 112 - - perhaps as a finalist.  Mantini and Selover are good performers while Fulton, Ash (Start) Fluker (Lorain Southview) and DeJesus (Admiral King) are other possibilities.  Actually the second best 112-pounder at Mentor should have been state alternate Paz (Eastlake North).  A very tough kid he apparently moved to Nevada - - which is even further west than this district extends..

There is pretty much mass confusion at Darby.  In fact the two I’ve rated highest have not yet competed at this weight - - Cunningham because he has been at 119# all year and Edminster, because of a pre-season injury.  Clearly, this is bit of a stretch, but the incumbents have not been overly impressive.  Brown, currently rated #1 in the Columbus area , was 4^th at Kenston losing twice to Bryan Hurley 13-0 and 10-0.

Kyle Puckett wrestled up at 119# last year while brother Kevin went to state  at 112#.  This year at the more normal 112# he has doubled up winning the SWOCA (by fall over Cottone) and the GMVWA (by decision over Browning).  That would seem to elevate him to the top step in this district, and provide state placement chances.  Cottone, Luce and Spencely lead a legion of other possible qualifiers by a very narrow margin.  Goodman and Schaffer have far better records than Cottone or Spencely, but the former finished behind them at the SWOCA while latter wrestles an easier schedule.

119 #

Projected Champion:  John Foster (Massillon Perry)

Top Contenders

Initially this was going to be one of the easiest weight classes in Division I to forecast correctly.  After all, the expectation was that the brilliant two-time state champion, Kyle Ott, would cruise to his third state title at 119#. However, six summer knee surgeries, conflict with the Wayne medical staff and administration and an eventual transfer to

St. Paris Graham has dispatched Ott to Division II competition.  What remains is a weight class in disarray with only two returning state placers (and one of those from Division III).  It should provide substantial opportunity for the many experienced performers returning at this weight class to improve on their past results, and for some of the excess 112’s at Perry.  In the end you’d have to conclude that this is the weakest weight class in Division

As a sidebar I’ve correctly predicted the first three winners in Division I for the past four years.  Ott’s defection substantially lessens the probability of increasing that total to five consecutive years with both 103# and now 119# lacking definitive favorites.  Still at both of these classes the competition should be sharp and appealing.

Last year John Foster was kind of my mystery man.  He was hidden away at tiny Dalton High School where he compiled an enormous string of consecutive falls.  He was quickly a Division III sectional champ and then district champ entering the state meet at 38-0.  Then ahead in the first round, he was pinned with 15 seconds remaining.  He quickly won five more bouts to finish 3^rd and cap a wonderful freshman season.  This year, now that his brother has graduated, he’s at Massillon Perry. Early in the year he was at 125# where he finished 5^th (losing to Lang) and 2^nd at Brecksville (losing to  Bosley from Parkersburg).  However, he has been devastating at 119#, and must be accorded the favorite role.

Foster should dominate the Perry district.  No other wrestlers have had state experience and none come close to his credentials.  Basso was a district semi-finalist last year and ended up as a fourth place state alternate.  He was 3^rd at Wadsworth, this year.  Gross has had a solid campaign, but still has not yet made a finals bout.  He could do it at this district.  Effner is an excellent freshman who I may have rated too low.  He was impressive at Brecksville, and seems absolutely fearless.  I really like Colello, and again, he should probably get up a few notches.  He lost to  Jaggers, 5-4 and easily won the WRC.  Watch for him.  Stellato (Boardman) and Spencer (Maple Hts.) are other thoughts.

There is a lot of heavy artillery at Mentor - - at least in the context of this weight class.  State qualifier Pollock  has had a bit of slow start, but he can be very good.  I think he has finalist potential with the right bracketing and attitude.   Mendez lost to McKirnan in the first round at States  and then finished 6^th at this class last year.  He’s involved in a lot of high scoring bouts that keep fans breathless and coaches gray.  Lakia, another state qualifier is very smooth, but may not have the horsepower to go with the very best.  That leave McKirnan with a tenous hold on the fourth berth with Sylvania champ Guerra right behind.  A dark horse here is Aggozzino who has not wrestled much against Ohio competition, but who upset Jaggers at Mayfield and was perfect at the Ohio Duals  (three tech fall shutouts).  He can turn people which erases a lot of mistakes.  Evans is a state qualifier from several years ago while Rose is rated first in the Toledo area.  They’ll have to be very sharp to qualify.  A long-shot here is Thomas who will be a very dangerous opponent.

Hansen is already a two-time state qualifier, but has not fared well at the State Meet.  He is 0-4 at that event outscored by a margin of 54-12.  Of course it hasn’t helped

that he met Lenhard and then Pflug in the first round.  As a potential district champ, he should drastically improve on those draws.  He was 6^th at 125# at Medina, but won at Toledo Central Catholic, never having to go six minutes in any of his five bouts.  Rieman was 3^rd at Waite nipping Guerra, 2-1, and should be in the hunt for a qualifying berth.   Biglar and Bishop are possibly next best, but I’m thinking there’ll be at least one surprise qualifier.

There are boatloads of contenders at Fairfield, and it is very difficult to sort them out.  Kist was a state qualifier at 125# last year.  After starting the season at that weight he finished 4^th at the SWOCA , and shortly thereafter moved down.  He will be a very large 119-pounder.  State qualifier Sebourn has been in and out of the line-up, but when he is hitting on all cylinders he is very tough.  Alban was 2^nd at the GMVWA to Guerra, but I think he’ll better that result if there’s a next time.  SWOCA champ Gray, the tough McCoy, and state qualifier  Loebker should also be in the mix for a qualifying spot.

All three could upset those rated above them at this district.  Jaynes has been out of action for some time but this former state qualifier can wrestle.  I would rate him much higher if I though he was healthy and in good form. Also potential qualifiers are Gill (Loveland), Kunkel (Colerain), Hahn (Fairfield) and Sellers (St. Xavier).

125 #

 Projected Champion:  Ryan Lang (St. Edward)

Top Contenders

I’m always amused by incongruities and anomalies and by things that lie askew of normality things like bumper stickers that proclaim “honk if you love peace and quiet “ and by ideas like “time is natures way of stopping things from happening all at once” that point to subtle truths.  If you’re like me in this respect than 125# should be a weight class we’ll both enjoy.  Where else will you find a bracket sheet whose key match-up may well feature last year’s 103# state champ versus last year’s 130# placer?  Where else will we have returning state qualifiers from five different weight classes and contenders that run the gamut from A (Alexiou) to Z (Zinkan)? It should be interesting as we look at the skills of three state placers and at least seven returning state qualifiers.

I think there’s a slight, but definite gap separating my top trio from the six contenders directly below them.  That’s not to label the top three upset-proof, but to suggest that, generally, they should come out on top in such battles.  My choice among that top triad is the amazing sophomore Ryan Lang.  Last year he finished 37-2 (both losses outside of Ohio) with a state title at 103# - - defeating seniors in the last two rounds. His coolness under fire won him the title.  For example, in the third period of his tied semi-final bout, Nate Vickers struck with a beautiful takedown attempt.

For nearly 30 seconds, Lang appeared to be seconds from losing the two crucial points, but always moving, he skirted disaster and almost miraculously wound up on top. That was the bout and yet, you know that against 99 out of a 100 wrestlers, Vickers gets that takedown.  This year Lang is up three weight classes, and has been very successful.  His only in-state loss was to my Division II choice Wooten who over-powered him the first week of the season.

Zinkan was 5^th at 130# last year, losing two close 3-1 bouts to Spires and Tepley.  He won the SWOCA at 130#, but shortly thereafter moved to 125#.  He crushed the field at the CIT, but the interesting bout was with Lang at the Ohio Duals.  In both the first and third periods, Zinkan had great takedown shots, but, again, Lang, somehow, staved him off.  You wonder how many such minor miracles he has given to him before he gets caught.  In the second period, Lang rode him out and got a turn as well.  So the final score was 4-0 for Lang - - but if Zinkan scores early it’s a different bout.

Enright came on in the second half of last season with an amazing rush. By state tourney time I thought he might be a finalist.  However, when the pairings came out with Ott and Moos in opposite brackets that was no longer possible.  Still he maxed out with a 3^rd place finish at 112#.  Now a junior he was 3^rd at Medina losing to Wooten (but not as badly as Lang) and winning everything else.  I think there is a chance he could overpower Lang and out-quick Zinkan.  We’ll see.  He and Lang should be apart so Zinkan would have to beat them both to win.

The strongest district is at Fairfield.  State qualifiers Wolery, Wolf, and Maxwell join Zinkan in what should be a great competition.  I’ve rated Wolf second best here based on his win over Wolery and on a better overall record than Maxwell.  He missed placement by one bout last year.  Wolery and Glavan split two bouts at Brecksville with Glavan winning in the championship round by two and Wolery taking 3^rd on tie breaker.  They are obviously, very evenly matched.  Should the pairings be bad Mason-Strauss is a good candidate to get a berth with Breiner and Mattheis other considerations.

Enright should have no trouble at Darby.  This is not a particularly strong year in the        Central District for Division I teams.  My view is that at many weight classes there isn’t a lot of depth - - and this is one of them.  After Enright, most of the possible qualifiers would struggle at any of the other three district sites.

Lang’s biggest obstacle at Mentor is the experienced Glavan.  He was a state alternate last year at 119# losing a tough semi-final bout to Lenhard, and ending up 4^th.  Cook, Pietropinto and, perhaps, Perle (Madison) are next best in the Northeast District.  However, there is mass confusion in the Toledo area.  I‘ve listed Hill, Bellman and Frederickson, but that is based on incomplete results.  You could also easily factor in Vargas (Waite), Lewis (Clay) and Rivera (Libbey).  They keep trading wins so that no definitive pattern is emerging.

State qualifier Thompson is an aggressive wrestler with lots of speed.  He was a Perry District champ at 119# last year defeating Hewitt 19-10.  Then after a 1-1 start at Columbus he lost an overtime bout to Hewitt in the second consolation round.  This year he was a champion at the Dies and was 5^th at Medina losing to Opfer and Blunk.  Januszewski is a solid second choice with good placement potential.  He was 2^nd at Mayfield losing only to Lang and 5^th at Medina (at 130#) losing only to Schlatter and Tepley.  After this duo this district is substantially weaker.

 130 #

Projected Champion:  Joe Pflug (Maple Hts.)

Top Contenders

There are five returning state placers competing at this weight - - the most of any class - - and they all have finalist potential. Lets look at each in a little more detail.

Of the top quintet Joe Pflug, now, a junior, has the best credentials and, perhaps, the most ability.  In both his freshman and sophomore season he opened with 36 consecutive victories and then lost his state finals bout--once to three- time champ Lenhard and once to probable, three-time champ Ott.  That is a marvelous record generated by Pflug’s incredible quickness and ability to counter.  This year he won at Franklin Hts, but was 2^nd at Brecksville defeating Tepley in a tough semi-final before losing to Schlatter by four in the finals.  The only negative with Pflug is his unwillingness to initiate aggressive takedown attempts against topnotch competition.

In his state finals bout with Lenhard last year (who he defeated at Mentor) he surrendered an early takedown, and did not pursue an aggressive course that might have resulted in a takedown or generated stalling calls.  Instead he stayed in his stance waiting to capitalize on a poor Lenhard shot.  Again, at Brecksville I did not see the level of aggressiveness against Tepley that could have made a nail-biter into a more decisive win.

Herrera was a strong and, perhaps, surprising 4^th last year including a brilliant run at Columbus.  A district third place winner he cruised into the semi-finals against the undefeated Smith.  There in a titanic struggle marred by some bizarre officiating he battled into the sudden death overtime losing, on of all things, a penalty point for false starts.  I thought he had out-wrestled Smith.  He came back to claim 4^th.  This year he won at Wadsworth and the WRC and was 3^rd as Mayfield and the Top Gun.  He is a persistent, mentally tough competitor who is especially good with a lead.

Tepley, tall and slender, was also 4^th last year losing to the excellent West in the first round and then winning four consolation bouts before again losing to West in the consolation finals.  He was 4^th at Brecksville losing by a point to Pflug and by criteria to Ducher.  He is a consumnate defensive wrestler with solid riding skills.  He could win it all, like Spires last year, by winning a succession of close low-scoring bouts.

Spatola is very tall and has a boatload of experience.  He was 5^th as a freshman at 103# and then 4^th his sophomore year at 119#.  Last year, plagued by injury, he was forced to default two bouts at the Southwest District and did not qualify.  This year he was champion at the GMVMA and 2nd at the SWOCA losing to Zinkan as his last second takedown bid that meant the title was fended off.  He was also 2^nd at the CIT losing to the brilliant Schlatter.  He can score and has a higher proportion of pins than the others.

Vondruska was the huge surprise last year at 135#.  He entered district action with 14 losses,  but put up three solid wins to make the finals where he lost to eventual state runner-up Vince DiGiovanni in overtime.  Then at the State Meet he beat both Baria and Dysart in overtime, before falling to 6^th place.  This year at 130# he was 3^rd at the Ironman and Powerade looking solid at both events.  Very disciplined, he is especially dangerous if he can keep it close early on.

I think this is the year that Joe Pflug wins his first state title.  It appears that recently it has been recognized that Pflug can and needs to be more aggressive in big matches.  At Mayfield, he twice took Schlaatter down with offensive moves, and, in fact, was the slightly more aggressive boy.  They both had two takedowns in the 7-6 Schlatter win, but Pflug might have had more shots.  It was a great bout and confirmed many of our suspicions that an aggressive Pflug is a superior product.

At Perry, both Pflug and Tepley could be challenged by the very solid Ducher - - who beat Tepley for 3^rd at Brecksville after a strange loss to Flake.  Walters, up from 125#, Link and White would be co-favorites for the last berth.

Spatola faces a crowded field at Fairfield, but he is a clear step ahead of all of them.  State qualifier Reiter, the erratic Flake, and Cox look to be next best.  This would seem  to be a wide-open competition with Spatola dominating at the top, but a lot of activity and surprises in other parts of the bracket.

I think very highly of Doucher who has had an excellent season except for the Sunday of the Ohio Duals.  Even then, he defeated Reiter, 9-3, before losing to Pierce and Walters.  I’m ignoring it and assuming he’ll be in the hunt for a place at Columbus.  A Ducher – Doucher match-up there would certainly stress the public address announcer.  Varner won at Solon and was a strong 2^nd at the OVAC, while Williamson, Ringle and Hess have been solid, if unspectacular, in their own locale.  Graham (Marion Franklin) is just now starting to compete, and could be a factor in this district.

The Mentor District is not particularly strong at this weight class.  We’ve already discussed Vondruska who would seem to be the premier player here.  The big unknown is Harris who won two district bouts last year at 130# - - including a win over Doucher.  He was a titlist at Woodward, but does not wrestle a real strong schedule. The enigmatic Jones is another mystery, which, I expect, will be resolved at this district.

135 #

 Projected Champion:  Matt McIntire (Lakota West)

Top Contenders

On the surface this would appear to be a two-man competition although there are several wrestlers on the periphery of challenging the top duo.  The favorite has to be the junior dynamo from Lakota West, state runner-up Matt McIntyre.  Last year he was 38-0 entering the state meet and then added three more victories before losing a 3-1 finals bout to the defensive specialist Spires   McIntyre wrestles six in-your-face minutes and is again undefeated this year - - including a win over Division II champ Jason Barnett.  The only way to beat him in my judgment is to make it a one-move match (if you can) and hope for the best.  In a contest with lots of scoring I think McIntyre is unbeatable.

West has had a brilliant high school career finishing 6^th, 4^th and 3^rd the last three years, but never quite reaching the finals.  He now has a career record of 144-12, but may still be searching for the right weight class this year.  He has been at 130#, and 140#, but I think right here is the best fit.  Both 130# and 140# are crowded with contenders while 135#, at least for now, is strangely empty.  Better yet, he has split two bouts with McIntyre (in 1999) and they exit the same district so that  he would not see him until the finals.  This year, West has won four title - - Ironman, GMVWA, CIT and Carroll—while finishing 3^rd at Medina and he also holds a victory over Barnett.  He seems very ready in this, his last attempt at a state title.

McIntyre and West isn’t all there is at Fairfield.  Baria wrestled up a weight class last year, but he is a hard working guy.  He qualified for Columbus, and then after a first round loss, worked his way back to 4^th place at `135#.  This year he has been one of the team’s steadiest performers.  He approaches every bout with a hard-nosed attitude that gives warning of his determination.  He was 4^th at the CIT losing to Division II and Division III projected champs Barnett and Hurley, and beat Kovach, Pierce and Evans at the Ohio Duals.  After him there is a substantial drop-off back to Stehlin, Carraher and Spence.  

There will be some good competition at Darby.  Moore was 5^th at 112# two years ago, but missed placement last year by one win.  He was 5^th at Medina in what was a blockbuster field that included Hurley, Smith, West, and Finneran.  He has wrestled at 140# part of the year, but this will be a perfect fit.  State qualifiers Evans and Bookman also return and have performed well this year.  Bookman lost a one-pointer to Baria last year.  Both of these boys could scramble to a low place.  Springer is probably the best bet for the fourth berth but Elliott, Crumbley, and Gibson (Westerville North) will be challengers.  Smith (Chillicothe) could be a factor here, although he may compete at 130#.

The Perry district is again, very strong.  Kovach was a district champion and state qualifier as a freshman 130-pounder and after an opening win he lost twice to Zinkan and Salyers.  He was 3^rd at Brecksville defeating Allen in overtime.  Allen was 4^th at Brecksville and 2^nd at Mayfield - - losing to Barnett for a second time.  Allen was 5^th at Ironman where he upset Moore earlier in that tourney.

State qualifier McGee and Sandquist are also strong with the latter seeming on the verge of real success.  Somehow, though, he always seems to lose that unexpected early bout.  A dark-horse contender will be Deonte Penn.  Since he moved down to 135 pounds he has been dominating opponents.  He should be a sectional champ providing good district bracket position.  He could be a surprise

The Mentor District is the toughest to analyze.  It has two sectionals from the Northeast District melded in with two from the Northwest.  This is the initial year for this arrangement so there is no past history.  Even worse, there has not been much competition between the Toledo and Cleveland schools so that direct comparisons or even common opponent analysis is not available.  Okay, that’s enough excuses for now.  This is by far the weakest district at this weight class.  There are no returning state qualifiers, and no one here has a large probability of placing.  Morris and Pierce might be the best, but then again, maybe not.  Two to watch closely are Beach (just down from 140#) and Felton (lots of upside potential).

140 #

Projected Champion:  Jason Bake (Massillon Jackson)

Top Contenders 

Its 2:00a.m.as I write this, and as I ponder what still must be done I’m reminded of Egon’s reply to Dr. Vinkman in “Ghostbusters” as they spot the Sta-Puff Marshmallow Man.  “I’m terrified beyond the capacity for rational thought”.  But then you long-time readers knew that anyway.

The first six wrestlers at this weight class are, as a group, as good as any in this year’s 42 weight classes.  The winner here will have surmounted exceptional obstacles to claim the crown, and a smidgen of good fortune may be an essential ingredient in reaching that end.  I’ve selected the winner here eight of the last nine years missing only in 1996 when my choice was 2^nd.

Jason Bake had a special season last year.  After losing to Percival in Ironman finals during the opening week, he won 26 consecutive bouts to take home a state title.  Most of his wins were by big scores ad he pinned DiGiovanni in the finals. This year he seems intent on repeating that process having lost in the Ironman finals, and, then again, having gone undefeated.  This year, however, the competition will be much tougher and, Bake will be much more severely challenged.  Remember DiGiovanni took Bake down twice in the first period and was ahead when he got caught.  With experienced challengers like Neely, Zinkan, and Galchick, he cannot afford to fall far behind.  Ryan Hurley gave Bake a very tough battle at Wadsworth.  He can expect many more at the district and state level.

There were some curious parallels between Bake and Zinkan last year - - both lost just one bout and both lost it to Percival.  However, Zinkan’s loss was in the state finals after he had beaten Huddle, Dimitris, and Spivey quite handily.  Zinkan has had a bit of a shaky season, too.  At 145# he lost a 7-2 bout to Ruth in the SWOCA semi-finals and finished 3^rd, and did not wrestle at the CIT.  At 140# he looked a little wobbly at the Ohio Duals beating Neely, who had outwrestled him, in overtime, and then losing a 3-2 bout to Dunstan.  However, at Easton he won three straight to get back on track.

Neely lost to Hurley at the Medina finals, but, as mentioned, wrestled Zinkan to a stand-still at the Ohio Duals.  He is a “full go” wrestler who never stops.  Galchick has won at Brecksville and the Top Gun with great quickness and strength.  A transfer from Salem he has made progress at Fitch.  Dunstan was twice a one-point loser at last year’s States and the Zinkan win was his highlight of this season.  He may not be as physically strong as some of the others.  Demarco won the GMVWA at 145# and the WRC at 140# over Penn.  He is the least known of this top half-dozen, but surely in their class in terms of performance.

The pairings may be a problem.  Three of my Top Six, are at Perry so conceivably Zinkan could have Galchick, Demarco and Neely or Dunstan in his half bracket.  Such and unbalanced bracket would potentially skew the eventual placement outcomes.

The Perry district is again, exceptional at the top.  With Bake, Galchick and Demarco competing here there isn’t a lot of room for anybody else.  Interestingly there is a huge gap between them and folks like Riley and Clark.  Getting the right bracketing will be crucial to qualification.

Neely should dominate at Darby.  No one else there should be within a half dozen points.  State qualifier Rike and Amerine are probably next best with Cronin and Lamonica a short half step behind.

Zinkan, too, should have little trouble at Fairfield.  However, Sommer has had substantial experience, and could provide at least some challenge.  After that, the last state spots are wide open.  A dark-horse candidate might be Harris who at 18-3 has one of the best records in the group.

Dunstan’s plan would be to win his district and then be paired in a half bracket with only Bake.  That would almost certainly gain placement, and, perhaps, even more.  State qualifier Ware is back after a marvelous district run last year.  He was the only first round loser at Mentor who won five consolation bouts to get the third and last qualifying spot.  Unfortunately, that strategy failed at the state level where he lost his first two outings.

145#

Projected Champion:  Vinnie DiGiovanni (Solon)

Top Contenders

If you look at potential stars, top-line strength, and overall depth this is the best weight class in division I.  I will be amazed if some of these folks don’t migrate to 152#.  And with all this we have the added bonus of featuring some of the most aggressive wrestlers in the state.  Mahone is a slam-bang get-a-fall kind of wrestler, while Blanks and Spivey are very active and offensive minded.  Wahoff is a pinner who has had a particularly high percentage of falls this year, while DiGiovanni  runs up high point totals. Its nice to see success with that style because wrestling is a sport that is teetering close to being out of balance at the upper levels.  And, frankly, sports that lose that critical balance between offense and defense rapidly fall out of favor.  I mean I was glad to see Rulon Gardner upset the Russian, but wasn’t it about the most boring nine minutes of your life.  You can always tell when a sport is out of balance when they start devising off-the-wall rules to jump-start scoring.  Every year now FILA tries some half-baked idea just to try and get some points on the board.  <